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Climate Change & Hurricanes: A Brewing Storm

Homes on fire while submerged in water, businesses swept away, mudslides dragging cars down streets, pets separated from families, widespread power outages affecting millions, National Guard helicopters rescuing people, and tornadoes forming over the ocean. You may recall these vivid scenes from Hurricanes Helene and Milton that wreaked havoc in late September and early October. Leaving behind a path of destruction and problems along the southeastern coast, we have no doubt about the scientific importance and seriousness of studying hurricanes. Among all the devastation, however, one topic continues to dominate headlines: climate change. Scientists and media outlets are pleading for serious attention to the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes under a worsening climate. So, what do scientists actually know about the relationship between hurricanes and climate change? How does climate change explain what we’re witnessing?

To begin, let’s establish what climate change is. Climate change is the long-term shift in global temperatures and weather. The climate change we are experiencing today is known as anthropogenic climate change and is primarily caused by humans, especially by burning fossil fuels. We release these gases into the atmosphere when we burn coal, oil, and gas for electricity and heat. These gases trap heat and cause the warming of the planet– concocting the perfect conditions for a disastrous storm. Consequences of climate change, like warmer ocean and air temperatures, are key ingredients for hurricanes to form. Hurricanes require four conditions to occur: warm ocean temperatures, enough moisture in the air, a slight shift in wind speed and direction, and a previous tropical wave or thunderstorm.

In 2023, climatologists* at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a study that shows predictions of the effects of climate change on hurricanes. Surprisingly, the NOAA predicts the frequency of hurricanes will not rise. However, they anticipate that we will see more hurricanes with faster wind speeds, greater rain intensity, and higher storm surges. This underscores the importance of hurricanes in relation to climate change.

When a hurricane first pops up on a scientist’s radar, they classify it using the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The scale classifies hurricanes into five categories based on their wind speeds. The faster the wind speed, the higher category and more destruction a hurricane can cause–from uprooting trees to structural damage to homes. In anticipation of their hit, Hurricane Helene was rated a category four and Hurricane Milton a category five. Hurricanes in these categories wind speeds fall between a whopping 130 to over 157 miles per hour. That’s a lot of power!

Climatologists also watch for rapid intensification when wind speeds jump by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours. While Hurricane Helene’s wind speed increased by over 40 mph, Hurricane Milton’s increased by 90 mph. Rapid intensification doesn’t happen with every hurricane, but it’s becoming more likely as ocean temperatures rise— and just last year, we recorded the highest ocean temperatures from climate change ever.

What about intense rainfall? The fierce downpours from hurricanes are extremely dangerous, as they can cause flooding and mudslides that are detrimental to certain places. In areas without proper infrastructure, entire homes and buildings can wash away within minutes, leaving nothing behind but a desolate, muddy landscape. In our atmosphere, warmer temperatures increase evaporation and the creation of thick rain clouds that cause us to experience heavy rainfall.

Finally, as sea levels rise due to climate change, another concern is greater storm surges. Storm surge is when strong gusts of wind hurtle high ocean waters toward the shore, pushing farther inland. These powerful walls of waves are significantly stronger than normal waves and can push farther inland to areas that would typically remain dry. Storm surge also contributes to higher flooding that can last for days or even weeks.

Scientists are working hard to understand more about the effects of climate change on hurricanes, but one thing remains clear: a storm is brewing. Hurricanes like Helene and Milton are just the beginning of the intense storms we can anticipate in a warming world. As we witness devastation from these storms, will we finally feel the urgency to address climate change?

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